Market Position – Demographic and prevalence

Demographic and Prevalence Data

A wealth of data and information about the communities and neighbourhoods in the Wakefield District can be found on the Wakefield Intelligence Observatory at http://www.westyorkshireobservatory.org/dataviews/ Below is a summary and analysis of the key demographic and prevalence measures which in our view impact upon the provision of care and support generally. In line with national trends, the growth of the local adult population will continue to increase with the largest percentage increase being people aged 85 and over who in turn tend to have the higher levels of social care needs.
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 %age increase 2012-2020
Total population 328,700 333,500 338,400 343,300 348,100 5.9%
Population aged 65+ 57,800 61,000 63,600 65,700 68,300 18.2%
%age of Population aged 65+ 17.58% 18.29% 18.79% 19.14% 19.62%
Population aged 85+ 7,000 7,400 8,000 8,600 9,300 33%
%age of Population aged 85+ 2.13% 2.22% 2.36% 2.51% 2.67%

Source: ONS 2018
The ethnic minority population within the district has historically been relatively small but continues to grow from 3.3% in 2001 to 7.2% in 2011. The largest minority ethnic group is “Other White” (Size of ethnic groups, 2011 Census), while the largest group born outside the UK are people born in Poland (2011 Census: Table QS203EW Country of Birth). The Wakefield Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) includes the following headline statistics that support the notion of continued increase in presenting need for social care and support:
  • Wakefield is the 67th most deprived district out of 326 in England. It is generally recognised that higher levels of deprivation impacts upon the levels of care and support that individuals consume.
  • General life expectancy levels in the Wakefield District lag behind the national average implying higher levels of chronic health conditions.
  • In the most deprived areas of Wakefield, life expectancy is 9.9 years lower for men and 7.2 years lower for women compared to the least deprived areas.
The Health and Wellbeing Strategy for Wakefield 2013-2016 identifies six main priorities to improve health and wellbeing outcomes:
  1. Inequalities
  2. Early Years
  3. Mental Health
  4. Long Term Conditions
  5. Older People
  6. Healthy Living and Quality of Life
Deprivation and health inequalities manifest themselves in a prevalence of long-term conditions which stimulate higher demand for care and support. The 2011 census identifies 37,000 adults in the district whose “day to day activities are limited a lot”. Whilst preventative support, improved healthcare, better housing and healthier lifestyles can reduce and delay the need for support, it cannot eliminate it. Indeed the prevalence of limiting long-term illness is predicted to continue to rise particularly within the older population.
    People with a Limiting Long-Term Illness
    Year201720182019202020212025
    People Aged 65+37,77538,48939,42140,16140,95845,056
    % Change 1.9%2.4%1.9%2.0%10.0%
    People Aged 85+5,5585,7806,0036,1516,3737,411
    % Change 4.0%3.9%2.5%3.6%16.3%
    Source:POPPI 2018
The Alzheimer’s Society Report (September 2014) confirmed that the number of people with dementia is steadily increasing currently in the order of 816,000 people nationally. The report estimates that there will be 857,000 people living with dementia in the UK in 2015 with dementia costing the UK economy £26 billion a year, representing one in every 79 (1.3%) of the entire UK population and 1 in every 14 of the population aged 65 years and over. If current trends continue the number of people with dementia in the UK is forecast to increase to 1,142,677 by 2025 and 2,092,945 by 2051, an increase of 40% over the next 12 years and of 156% over the next 38 years.
    People predicted to have Dementia
    Year 201720182019202020212025
    People Aged 65+4,2194,3244,4424,5534,6574,219
    % Change 2.5%2.7%2.5%2.3%-9.4%
    People Aged 85+180418431909195719961804
    % Change 2.2%3.6%2.5%2.0%-9.6%
    Source:POPPI 2018
The continued national growth of the learning disability population is placing significant additional demands on a service already under pressure. The demands faced in this regard within the Wakefield District are outlined below.
    People predicted to have Learning Disabilities
    Year 201720182019202020212025
    People aged 18-641,1141,1131,1121,1111,1081,108
    % Change -0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%0.0%
    People Aged 65+184186189192195208
    % Change 1.1%1.6%1.6%1.6%6.7%
    Source:PANSI 2018
Although the national data predicts a small decrease in people aged under 65 the age range 65+ is projected to increase, bringing with it a new challenge of understanding the support needs of older people with autism.
    People predicted to have Autistic Spectrum Disorders
    Year 201720182019202020212025
    People aged 18-642,0072,0092,0011,9981,9971,960
    % Change 0.1%-0.4%-0.1%-0.1%-1.9%
    People Aged 65+601611626638650712
    % Change 1.7%2.5%1.9%1.9%9.5%
    Source:PANSI 2018
The 2011 census reported that 20.2% of the local population provide unpaid care, many at very high levels. This crucial support massively complements the formal support commissioned by the council providing a vital role in supporting individuals and reducing the need for more intensive services.
    People Providing unpaid care
    Year 201720182019202020212025
    People Aged 65+ providing 1-19 hours of unpaid care3,7193,7523,8033,8443,8994,184
    People Aged 65+ providing 20-49 hours of unpaid care132913491371139014101509
    People Aged 65+ providing 50+ hours of unpaid care3,1873,2903,4053,4913,5623,850
    People Aged 65+ providing unpaid care9,4289,5599,7359,87510,03310,818
    Source:PANSI 2018
The Council is committed to supporting Carers to help maintain their own quality of life whilst balancing their caring responsibilities.