Market Position – Demographic and prevalence

Demographic and Prevalence Data

A wealth of data and information about the communities and neighbourhoods in the Wakefield District can be found on the Wakefield Intelligence Observatory at http://www.westyorkshireobservatory.org/dataviews/

Below is a summary and analysis of the key demographic and prevalence measures which in our view impact upon the provision of care and support generally.

In line with national trends, the growth of the local adult population will continue to increase with the largest percentage increase being people aged 85 and over who in turn tend to have the higher levels of social care needs.

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

%age increase 2012-2020

Total population

328,700

333,500

338,400

343,300

348,100

5.9%

Population aged 65+

57,800

61,000

63,600

65,700

68,300

18.2%

%age of Population aged 65+

17.58%

18.29%

18.79%

19.14%

19.62%

Population aged 85+

7,000

7,400

8,000

8,600

9,300

33%

%age of Population aged 85+

2.13%

2.22%

2.36%

2.51%

2.67%

The ethnic minority population within the district has historically been relatively small but continues to grow from 3.3% in 2001 to 7.2% in 2011. The largest minority ethnic group is “Other White” (Size of ethnic groups, 2011 Census), while the largest group born outside the UK are people born in Poland (2011 Census: Table QS203EW Country of Birth).

The Wakefield Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) includes the following headline statistics that support the notion of continued increase in presenting need for social care and support:

  • Wakefield is the 67th most deprived district out of 326 in England. It is generally recognised that higher levels of deprivation impacts upon the levels of care and support that individuals consume.
  • General life expectancy levels in the Wakefield District lag behind the national average implying higher levels of chronic health conditions.
  • In the most deprived areas of Wakefield, life expectancy is 9.9 years lower for men and 7.2 years lower for women compared to the least deprived areas.

The Health and Wellbeing Strategy for Wakefield 2013-2016 identifies six main priorities to improve health and wellbeing outcomes:

  1. Inequalities
  2. Early Years
  3. Mental Health
  4. Long Term Conditions
  5. Older People
  6. Healthy Living and Quality of Life

Deprivation and health inequalities manifest themselves in a prevalence of long-term conditions which stimulate higher demand for care and support. The 2011 census identifies 37,000 adults in the district whose “day to day activities are limited a lot”. Whilst preventative support, improved healthcare, better housing and healthier lifestyles can reduce and delay the need for support, it cannot eliminate it. Indeed the prevalence of limiting long-term illness is predicted to continue to rise particularly within the older population.

People Aged 65+ with a Limiting Long-term Illness

%age increase 2012-2020

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

People aged 65+

32,601

34,383

35,853

37,147

38,680

19%

%age Increase

5.5%

4.3%

3.6%

4.1%

People aged 85+

4,313

4,560

4,930

5,299

5,731

33%

%age Increase

5.7%

8.1%

7.5%

8.1%

The Alzheimer’s Society Report (September 2014) confirmed that the number of people with dementia is steadily increasing currently in the order of 816,000 people nationally. The report estimates that there will be 857,000 people living with dementia in the UK in 2015 with dementia costing the UK economy £26 billion a year, representing one in every 79 (1.3%) of the entire UK population and 1 in every 14 of the population aged 65 years and over.

If current trends continue the number of people with dementia in the UK is forecast to increase to 1,142,677 by 2025 and 2,092,945 by 2051, an increase of 40% over the next 12 years and of 156% over the next 38 years.

Older People Predicted to have Dementia

%age increase 2012-2020

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

People aged 65+

3,812

4,036

4,273

4,491

4,813

26%

%age Increase

5.9%

5.9%

5.1%

7.2%

People aged 85+

1,653

1,757

1,913

2,026

2,222

34%

%age Increase

6.3%

8.9%

5.9%

9.7%

The continued national growth of the learning disability population is placing significant additional demands on a service already under pressure. The demands faced in this regard within the Wakefield District are outlined below.

Adults Predicted to have a Moderate or Severe Learning Disability

%age increase 2012-2020

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Aged 18-64

1,104

1,111

1,122

1,133

1,142

3%

%age Increase

0.6%

1%

1%

0.8%

Aged 65+

165

174

181

186

192

16%

%age Increase

5.4%

4%

2.8%

3.2%

Although the national data predicts a small decrease in people aged under 65 the age range 65+ is projected to increase, bringing with it a new challenge of understanding the support needs of older people with autism.

Adults Predicted to have Autism

%age increase 2014-2030

2014

2015

2020

2025

2030

Aged 18-64

2003

2004

2006

2000

1989

%age Increase/decrease

0.05%

0.1%

-0.3%

-0.6%

-0.7%

Aged 65+

562

577

644

716

801

%age Increase

2.7%

11.6%

11.2%

11.9%

42.5%

The 2011 census reported that 20.2% of the local population provide unpaid care, many at very high levels. This crucial support massively complements the formal support commissioned by the council providing a vital role in supporting individuals and reducing the need for more intensive services.

Estimated Number of Carers in the Wakefield District Providing Support

1 to 19 Hours

50,595

15.5%

20 to 49 Hours

5,515

1.7%

50 or More Hours

9,940

3%

Total Carers

66,050

20.2%

The Council is committed to supporting Carers to help maintain their own quality of life whilst balancing their caring responsibilities.